Somalia – “Somaliland’s Crucial Crossroads: Tensions Rise as Presidential Elections Unveil Dangerous Allegations and Regional Threats”
Photos from the election in Somaliland region.
Title: “Somaliland’s Crucial Crossroads: Tensions Rise as Presidential Elections Unveil Dangerous Allegations and Regional Threats”
Introduction:
On November 13, 2024, the people of Somaliland—a self-declared independent region that broke away from Somalia in 1991—participated in one of the most critical presidential elections in its history. With a voter turnout surpassing one million, the election saw a fierce contest between WADANI, led by Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro (Cirro), and the incumbent, Muse Biihi Abdi, of KULMIYE. While international observers lauded the election as peaceful and calm, serious political tensions and regional fears are casting a long shadow over Somaliland’s future, threatening to escalate into civil war and regional conflict.
Political Tensions and Allegations of Betrayal:
The election has exposed significant fractures within Somaliland’s political landscape. President Muse Biihi Abdi, seeking re-election, stands accused by his opponents of compromising the region’s sovereignty and placing its future at risk. Allegations have emerged that Biihi has struck secretive deals with neighboring Ethiopia, ceding parts of Somaliland to Ethiopian control without the consent of the Somaliland people or their parliament. These claims have fueled widespread concerns that Somaliland’s hard-won independence is under threat, potentially leading to civil conflict and a regional war if Biihi secures another term.
Opposition leaders have voiced outrage, demanding investigations into the alleged territorial concessions and calling for accountability. If these claims prove true, they could signal a catastrophic shift in the region’s geopolitical landscape and undermine Somaliland’s autonomy, risking instability and a potentially destructive conflict.
The Role of External Actors: Ethiopia and UAE Influence:
Independent reports have confirmed that Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are alleged to be backing Muse Biihi Abdi, raising concerns over the growing geopolitical influence of these foreign powers in Somaliland. Ethiopia, with longstanding ambitions to increase its sway in the Horn of Africa, stands to benefit from these reported agreements, particularly if they involve the annexation of parts of Somaliland into Ethiopia’s Somali Region (Somali Killil).
The UAE, with its military and economic interests in the region, has reportedly been pushing Ethiopia to consolidate its control over parts of Somaliland, further destabilizing the region. However, it is the leaked reports of an illegal Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Ethiopia and Muse Biihi that have set off alarm bells, suggesting the possibility of Somalia’s sovereign territories being annexed to Ethiopia. If confirmed, such a development could push the situation toward a broader Somali-Ethiopian confrontation. The geopolitical ramifications could involve not only Somaliland’s future but also Somalia’s defense of its territorial integrity. Somalia could be forced to act militarily to defend its sovereignty, while Egypt—already at odds with Ethiopia over the Nile River—could potentially intervene to safeguard its legal rights to the Nile. Such a scenario would exacerbate tensions and could ignite a regional war, drawing in several countries in the Horn of Africa and beyond.
The Threat of Civil War and Regional Instability:
The allegations of external interference and territorial betrayal have raised alarm bells within Somaliland and the broader Horn of Africa. If Muse Biihi Abdi is re-elected and these claims are substantiated, civil unrest could spiral out of control, with the potential for violent clashes between supporters of Biihi and opposition forces. The fear of foreign influence and the erosion of Somaliland’s sovereignty has prompted calls for immediate action to prevent a dangerous escalation.
Moreover, the threat of regional war looms large, particularly if the international community fails to act. The unfolding crisis could ignite a broader conflict in the Horn of Africa, involving Somalia, Ethiopia, and other regional powers, destabilizing an already volatile region and exacerbating ongoing humanitarian crises. The Nile dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia adds another layer of complexity to the situation, with both countries potentially joining the fray to protect their interests in the region.
CSHRD Call to Action:
The Coalition of Somali Human Rights Defenders (CSHRD) urgently calls on the international community to take decisive action to address the growing crisis in Somaliland. Specifically, we demand:
1. Immediate investigation into the claims surrounding Muse Biihi Abdi’s dealings with Ethiopia and the UAE, particularly concerning the alleged cession of Somaliland’s territories.
2. Pressure on the governments of Somalia, Ethiopia, and the UAE to respect Somaliland’s sovereignty, ensuring that no unilateral actions are taken that could jeopardize the region’s future.
3. Full international oversight of Somaliland’s elections to guarantee transparency, fairness, and the protection of democratic processes.
4. Diplomatic and humanitarian support for those at risk of persecution or violence as a result of these escalating tensions.
5. Promotion of dialogue among all political factions in Somaliland, ensuring a peaceful resolution to political disputes and safeguarding the region’s autonomy.
Conclusion:
The November 13, 2024, presidential elections in Somaliland have laid bare a grave crisis that could shape the future of the region for generations. Allegations of territorial concessions, the involvement of external powers, and the leaked MOU between Muse Biihi and Ethiopia threaten to destabilize Somaliland and the broader Horn of Africa. The CSHRD urges the international community to act urgently, preventing further escalation and preserving the sovereignty and peace of the Somaliland people. The stakes are higher than ever, and the world must stand with Somaliland to ensure a peaceful and prosperous future.
CSHRD Elcetion Observers